Has the Broncos' championship window already slammed shut?

Has the Broncos' championship window already slammed shut?

"It's the strangest kind of transition period and it's impossible to say how things may shake out once the 2015 Denver Broncos take the field." click the read more link below...

Crap my kid Photoshopped for me: The Melvin Hunt for Red October

Crap my kid Photoshopped for me: The Melvin Hunt for Red October

My son is at it again. The Drew Litton of Photoshop brings you the movie poster some Nuggets fans prefer to see for the rest of this season and well...

Brian Shaw was just a symptom of Nuggets’ sickness

Brian Shaw was just a symptom of Nuggets’ sickness

"It’s a team without an identity. It’s a team that says it wants to win but doesn’t appear to know how to. It’s a team for whom relative success (under...

The silence is deafening. Is Peyton really coming back?

The silence is deafening. Is Peyton really coming back?

"-There’s nothing stopping Manning from forcing Denver’s hand. “Pay me or cut me” could very well be his stance. And he’s perfectly justified in taking it." click the read more link...

Suddenly everybody hates Julius Thomas

Suddenly everybody hates Julius Thomas

"Broncos Country loved JT and now he's being run out of town on a digital rail becuase of one article written by one sports radio host based on the comments...

Crap my kid Photoshopped for me: Only Bill could make Pete look like ...

Crap my kid Photoshopped for me: Only Bill could make Pete look like ...

Pete Carroll is no angel. But the head coach of the Patriots makes him look like one.

Radio Row: Say goodbye to the Press Box

Radio Row: Say goodbye to the Press Box

"The success of the Press Box show earned Peter Burns national attention and that attention ultimately led to his being discovered by ESPN and eventually hired to anchor the new...

OK, Peyton. One more year and that's it, okay?

OK, Peyton. One more year and that's it, okay?

"Pretty much everything Peyton Manning is yet to do can be done in 2015 - including winning a Super Bowl in a Broncos uniform. But after that he's got to...

It's time for the Broncos to stop walking on Manning's eggshells.

It's time for the Broncos to stop walking on Manning's eggshells.

"So long as number 18 is suiting up for the Denver Broncos the Denver Broncos will be built around Peyton Manning. The offense will be designed in his image and...

The Broncos should stick with plan "A" if only for one more year

The Broncos should stick with plan "A" if only for one more year

"Peyton Manning and John Fox are a package. It would be senseless for the Broncos to fire Fox and hire a replacement for Manning's "one last run" at the playoffs....

Radio Row: Another shoe drops in the rapidly changing sports radio scene. How much more is to come?

Radio Row: Another shoe drops in the rapidly changing sports radio scene. How much more is to come?

"It is possible, however, that Front Range Sports, now flush with the $5.75M it received from Colorado Public Radio for the 102.3 signal, could make a play to purchase the...

Godspeed, Adrian Dater. Godspeed.

Godspeed, Adrian Dater. Godspeed.

"Well, the communications must have been real. She was, if her Twitter account was to be believed, quite upset with Dater for his actions and she launched a personal campaign...

Is “Super Creepy” Adrian Dater posing more problems for the Post?

Is “Super Creepy” Adrian Dater posing more problems for the Post?

"Deadspin has once again become interested in Dater’s exploits on Twitter. This time the site was contacted by a female hockey fan who provided screen grabs of some rather creepy...

Pro leagues / teams are making deals with the Devil in daily fantasy sports

Pro leagues / teams are making deals with the Devil in daily fantasy sports

"The industry has cleverly slipped into the loopholes left in the gaming act and in doing so has essentially replaced online poker as the most popular form of internet gambling." CLICK...

A stunning Broncos loss has made us normal people again

A stunning Broncos loss has made us normal people again

"Better now than later, I say. Better for the fans. Better for the team. Not only do the Broncos now have a better perspective on how they might be beaten...

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Saturday, 10 November 2012 11:17

Fantasy Falderal (TM): revisiting the first-round QB debate

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Prior to the fantasy football season various drafting experts provided players with differing advice on first-round strategy, particulary where quarteback were concerned. As we head toward the fantasy playoffs, let's revisit the issue.

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Prior to 2012 fantasy drafts, two ESPN fantasy experts had two different perspectives on early draft strategy. Matthew Berry, AKA the "Talented Mr. Roto" endorsed snagging a top-5 QB, Cecil Lammey, NFL Insider and FootballGuys.com analyst, promoted what he called "stud running back theory".

Three weeks into the fantasy season, the question of whether or not to draft a premium QB with an early pick in the first round of drafts seemed to have been answered "No" . At that time I wrote a Fantasy Falderal item for this site titled "The first-round QB debate is settled". Top-teir QBs had gotten off to a slow start. On the flip side, top-5 backs were proving their worth. So, it seemed as though the issue was resolved. As fantasy players gear up for the playoffs, though, there's less clarity on the matter.

For the sake of reflection let's look at the performances of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford, the four QBs thought to be potentially worthy of a top-12 overall selection, versus Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeShean McCoy and Chris Johnson, the consensus top four RBs.

How do these two groups compare in terms of reliability and overall scoring?

For reference I am using the South Stands Denver Fantasy Football League (SSDFFL) in which passing TDs are worth 5 points and rushing TDs are worth 6. This is a PPR league. Fractional scoring is allowed, but I will round point totals off for this article.

In that league Aaron Rodgers is the top overall player with 347 points. Brees is the second scorer with 345 points. Brady is fourth with 321 points and Stafford is seventh with 286 points. The top four pre-draft QBs have produced an average of about 325 points each.

In this league, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer are all near the top of the scoring heap, also, having produced an average of 302 points. Robert Griffin III falls just outside this group becuase there is no premium on QB rushing yardage. Of this group, only Matt Ryan was widely considered to be a top-10 "lock". The others are all round 5-6 type selections or, in Palmer's case, a late round flier, yet the group has produced almost 90% of the points the top-4 QB selections have.

The stud RBs, Foster, Rice McCoy and Johnson, are all amongst the top ten RBs in scoring after nine games, having produced an average of 124.5 points. A number of surprise performers have also cracked the top ten, however. Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and Marshawn Lynch, all considered high-upside plays prior to the draft, have averaged 132.5 in accumulated points. Of this group only Doug Martin was likely to have slipped past the second round in drafts. Still, Martin, along with players like CJ Spiller, Willis McGahee and Alfred Morris are examples of guys that could be doing very well for fantasy players that did opt to select an early QB.

After week three I had come around to the idea that Cecil Lammey's "stud RB theory" was nails. I am beginning to waiver now. Part of this is because Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have slowly risen back to the top eschelon of fantasy performers. Each started out slowly, but has proven to be a safe investment as the season has gone by. Guys like RGIII and Andrew Luck have been nice surprises, but it's clear that the QBs selected in the first round have lived up to expectations. There is a pretty big dropoff for QB production between the top six 2012 QBs and the next grouping.

The dropoff at RB occurs after the top five, two of whom, Doug Martin and Trent Richardson, could have been drafted as late as the third round in some 12-team leagues.

It's tough to question the validity of drafting a QB early. What has become abundantly clear, however, is that drafting WR is the first round has not worked out. Calvin Johnson, the traditional RD1 WR has been an enormous disappointment.

 

 

 

 

 

Last modified on Saturday, 10 November 2012 12:24
Colin Daniels

Colin is the emcee of the South Stands Denver Fancast and maintains our Twitter and Facebook accounts.